#Market 11: Outlook

WLC Sector Outlook Process

***WLC Sector Outlook Process

• What happened this year and what we can learn from it

• Our best guess about what lies ahead for next year

• Steps: 1) Digestion, 2) Contemplation, 3) Ideation, 4) Prediction

#1. Digestion

• What moved in a big way in my sector this year and why?

• What businesses really went off the rails in a permanent way this year?

• What are the situations where there may be more of a narrative driven or temporary operating issue driven sell-off?

#2. Comtenplation

• Give myself some time to think through the issue

• Multi-week process at the end - Insights emerge, write them down

• Long lunch conversations with other investors/friends you respect

#3. Ideation

• Start to think through the catalyst path for 2025

• How that catalyst path will impact your names for 2025?

• Take out your toolbox of "model to stock", performance cycles, revisions, narrative cycles - Start to be creative about how your view of the world in 2025 might impact the stocks you cover

#4. Prediction

• If I run a teams, I do my own 50-70 pages broad sector outlook

• Then ask my analysts to do their own 50-70 pages sub-sector outlook, and we have a marathon 3-4 hour outlook session

• Would pull heavily from sell-side material, cutting and pasting charts I thought were insightful

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***Outlook 2025

1. Goldman Sachs https://goldmansachs.com/images/insights/2025-outlooks/Tailwinds-Probably-Trump-Tariffs.pdf

2. J.P Morgan https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/market-insights/emea-investment-outlook-2025.pdf

3. HSBC https://privatebanking.hsbc.com/content/dam/privatebanking/gpb/wealth-insights/investment-insights/house-views/2025/brochure/hsbc-gpb-investment-outlook-new-growth-engines.pdf

4. Wells Fargo https://wellsfargo.bluematrix.com/links2/html/05ca4b0c-2522-4b31-a2c1-1bcca918664d

5. Barclays https://privatebank.barclays.com/content/dam/privatebank-barclays-com/en-gb/private-bank/documents/insights/outlook-2025/outlook-2025.pdf

6. BNP Paribas https://bnpparibas-am.com/en-dk/professional-investor/portfolio-perspectives/investment-outlook-2025-opportunities-in-a-volatile-world/

7. ING https://think.ing.com/uploads/reports/Banks_Outlook_2025.pdf

8. Invesco https://invesco.com/us-rest/contentdetail?contentId=2ccc2b40-37d9-4556-93b2-b6e0bebf0860

9. Invesco https://invesco.com/us-rest/contentdetail?contentId=2ccc2b40-37d9-4556-93b2-b6e0bebf0860

10. T. RowePrice https://troweprice.com/content/dam/gdx/pdfs/Investing_During_Transitions_GMO_2025_AU_Retail.pdf

11. Allianz https://allianz.com/content/dam/onemarketing/azcom/Allianz_com/economic-research/publications/specials/en/2024/september/2024-09-30-global-economic-outlook-Q3-2024-AZ.pdf

12. BlackRock Global https://spglobal.com/_assets/documents/ratings/research/101608155.pdf

13. BlackRock https://blackrock.com/us/financial-professionals/literature/article-reprint/2025-thematic-outlook.pdf

14. Deloitte https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/industry/financial-services/financial-services-industry-outlooks/banking-industry-outlook.html

15. National Intelligence Council of The US https://dni.gov/files/document

16. Schroders https://www.schroders.com/en-lu/lu/individual/insights/private-equity-2025-outlook-soft-landings-into-dry-powder/

17. KKR https://www.kkr.com/insights/2025-infrastructure-outlook

18. Amundi https://research-center.amundi.com/article/2025-investment-outlook

19. ING https://think.ing.com/uploads/reports/Bank_Outlook_2025_v1.pdf

20. Fidelity https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/euissmultisiteprod-live-8dd1b69cadf7409099ee6471b87c49a-7653963/international/PDF/download-material/outlook-2025.pdf

21. Merril Lynch https://www.ml.com/articles/market-outlook-preview.html

22. Morgan Stanley https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/thoughts-on-the-market-global-outlook

23. Barclays https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/thoughts-on-the-market-global-outlook